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Sunday, August 20th, 2006

Time Event
11:24a
Уроки ливанской войны: "Maybe West needs its own Hezbollah"
With United Nations signaling that nationhood is passé,
other countries will need proxy militias
.

    Автор цитируемой ниже статьи в популярной американской газете Philadelphia Inquirer размышляет о причинах и методах ведения ливанской войны сторонами конфликта (Ираном и Сирией - с одной стороны, и Израилем - с другой), а также про характерно предубежденное отношение к сторонам такого рода конфликтов мирового общественного мнения.

    В итоге он приходит к выводу что весьма эффективная тактика, которую избрали Иран и Сирия в нынешней фазе БВ конфликта - обозвали самые боеспособные из подразделений спецназа этих стран "народным ополчением" Hezbollah и таким образом получили массу преимуществ в ведении боевых действий против Израиля - оказалась вновь с очевидностью весьма успешной.

    По мнению автора статьи в Philadelphia Inquirer, это означает, что безусловно скоро и страны Запада тоже неизбежно придут к выводу что далее не могут более позволить себе не иметь и со своей стороны тоже ровно такого же рода - камуфлируемые под "народное сопротивление" и специально к таким миссиям натренированные части спецназа - как иранская Хезбола


U.N. Resolution 1701 calls for a cease-fire between a nation-state, Israel, that was responding to an attack, and a terrorist group, Hezbollah, that crossed an internationally recognized border to kill and kidnap Israeli soldiers...

But here are the main messages to Israel from 1701: Defend yourself against the terrorists of Hezbollah and the world will blame you for the violence.

Strike too hard - disproportionately - and the world will urge a cease-fire, expecting you to honor it although your enemy pledged in the 1980s, "Our struggle will end only when [Israel] is obliterated. We recognize no treaty with it, no cease-fire, and no peace agreements, whether separate or consolidated."

Expect to be condemned if you threaten Hezbollah's sponsors, Syria and Iran - that would be widening the war, after all - but don't expect the world to rebuke them for arming and financing the militia-for-hire they use against the "Benefit, Honour and Advantage" of another nation-state...

Maybe the U.N. is right. Perhaps the nation-state is passé, and non-state actors such as Hezbollah are on the rise.

If so, don't expect the West to remain unarmed. Soon, enough Western nations will understand that it is conventional militaries that draw the world's scorn; you can win on the battlefield but still lose in the media and the Security Council.

Western nations will cultivate their own militias. Quietly. After all, one must ensure the veneer of grassroots populism U.N. members find so endearing about the current crop.

These Western militias would have rules, of course. The U.N. may wink and nod at the slaughter of civilians and rhetoric of genocide, but that doesn't mean others can stomach it...

If a militia mission goes awry, the West can simply mouth pieties about "freedom fighters" and the "legitimate aspirations of a people"...

    Source: By Kevin Ferris, Philadelphia Inquirer, Aug. 20, 2006.

9:45p
Лет 25 тому как случилось посмотреть в дождь на Невском кино

Внезапно для самого себя забежал в кинотеатр с улицы, чтобы не промокнуть, и понятия потому конечно же не имел о том, что на экране окажется. По самым разным поводам однако случается вспоминать его с тех пор (см. например здесь и там).

На этот раз повод и вовсе чуднЫм оказался. Френдлента - по её собственной заметьте инициативе и встроенной по-видимому еще Фицпатриком логике тоже - предложила вдруг прочитать две подряд в ней расположенные кино-рецензии о чем-то - как поди и всегда в таком жанре - мне к пониманию недоступном, но ... интересным образом написанном. Сначала одна, и тут же - минуту спустя - вторая единой темы кино-рецензии.

Так вот во второй из этих двух - дуплетом, как оказалось, выстреленных - рецензий, как раз, кроме прочего, и упоминается, как "болгарская хуйня 80-х годов про летающую идиотку", тот фильм в дождь на Невском, о котором собственно это сообщение.

Еще один повод иными словами тот фильм оказался - полагал бы что уместно - вспомнить. В контексте при чем к ему абсолютно же и точном. Удивительно долгоиграющие кино.

Номинально, меж тем вроде бы как все того времени кина щел - час с чем-то. Не более. И вот по сю пору все еще не отпускают. Не пересматривал разумеется с того времени ни разу.

Не стал бы впрочем снова смотреть если бы возможность такая скажем возникла. Страшновато было б ненароком смазать тех именно - дождь на Невском, как завязка сюжета, да и все остальное затем той поры белых ночей с неделю цепь событий - впечатлений. Висит потому как в памяти яснее в деталях любого DVD.
11:01p
Do You Think Hezbollah Got What They Wanted?

    Question: "What do you think of the thought that Hezbollah got
    exactly what they wanted out of this whole war? That this is what they hoped
    to happen from the beginning? Their re-construction of Southern Lebanon has
    started so quickly that it almost looks like they were planning it all along.
    Plus with all the slanted news reporting that they're getting, it just makes
    them look even more like the good guys.

    So, Israel destroys a bunch of Lebanon (completely the fault of Hezbollah,
    but no one seems to want to remember that), the world press makes Israel look
    like a bunch of baby killers, Hezbollah doesn't get destroyed (because the UN
    and the US want the fighting stopped) and then Hezbollah looks like heroes
    because they've so quickly started re-building Southern Lebanon. (Again,
    ignoring the fact that it's all their fault and that they did ABSOLUTELY
    NOTHING to protect the civilians in the first place.)

    With the complicit world press that does everything in it's power to show
    Israel in as bad a light as possible, this could have been what Hezbollah
    planned all along..." -- GEBIV

Answer: My guess, which might or might not be wrong, is that Hezbollah
dramatically underestimated the scope of Israel's reaction to the kidnappings.

As far as Hezbollah declaring "victory" goes, it doesn't matter how
badly Israel's foes get beaten down, they always declare "victory"
afterwards. It's just what they do.

The slanted news coverage? When is Israel ever given fair news coverage?
Although I do have to admit that slamming Israel's response as
"disproportionate" throughout the fighting and then declaring
Hezbollah the victors as soon as the fighting ends does set a new standard for
bias.

The reconstruction? It's good that Hezbollah got started so early because
they're going to be working on it for years, maybe even a decade or more.

If Hezbollah knew Israel was going to do so much damage to them and that the
conflict would end with a UN Resolution that demands Hezbollah move out of the
South while the Lebanese Army and a 15,000 strong UN force moved in, I sincerely
doubt if they would have kidnapped those soldiers in the first place.

That being said, I'm still of the opinion that since Hezbollah is flagrantly
violating the ceasefire by refusing to disarm or go North and since the
international force is starting to fall apart before it gets started (Thank you, France), Israel should start bombing again.

John Hawkins | 07:35 AM | Comments(76) | TrackBack
11:52p
Winners and Losers in the Hezbollah-Israel War
After Action Report, By Bill Roggio
August 15, 2006 12:39 PM
Read more...Collapse )

The United States: By the mere mention of Hezbollah in UNSC 1701, and a willingness to negotiate an end to the fighting while Hezbollah remains a viable organization in Lebanon, the United States government has elevated the status of Hezbollah from a terrorist group to a non-state entity worthy of negotiations. Hezbollah, which killed 241 U.S. Marine in the Beirut barracks bombings in 1983 and a host of other terrorist acts against the U.S., is a designated terrorist entity according to the United States. The desire for peace in Lebanon has overridden a golden rule of United States foreign policy: do not negotiate with terrorists.
Read more...Collapse )

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