December 13th, 2005


A word about bubbles.

Why is that so?

Риторически задают приведенный выше вопрос авторы нижецитируемой статьи - с размышлениями на разные вокруг того в основном онлайновых бизнесов приложений темы - по поводу нынешней фазы явления по имени Real Estate Bubble и поясняют затем их видение самого по себе феномена bubbles как такового, но уже только в историческом контекстен ранее состоявшихся такого рода событий:
    Because busts are the most Darwinian of all financial phenomena. On one end of the gene pool, winners end up as the one, two or maybe five powers in a highly lucrative industry. On the other end, everyone who doesn’t win gets eaten.

    Think about Google, Amazon and eBay and compare their mega-success with how just about everybody else fared when The Revolution That Wasn’t took a dive around 2000. Or think about the earlier botched financial Brave New World, the electricity bubble of the 1920s, which produced a whole lot of roiling financial blackouts -- but also made General Electric.

    The point is that bubbles don’t last, but they change things in lasting ways. The electricity bubble burst, but we still use GE light bulbs instead of oil lamps. The Internet bubble burst, but we use Google instead of phone books, encyclopedias and (often) word of mouth.

    So the goal of every business is to be in the small group of brands that, when the bubble is over, owns the new product, service, idea or way of doing an old thing differently that the bubble makes popular.

    And the Internet fallout from the real estate bubble, if we’re in a real estate bubble, should look the same. Now’s the time that everybody’s interested in real estate; so now’s the time to get market share and brand loyalty. It’ll really cash in when people buy and sell houses like it isn’t going out of style anymore -- and there will be far less market share to go around, and real estate transactions will be infrequent enough that getting markets to switch brand loyalties will be awfully hard.

Source: "Is Your SEM Strong Enough to Pull You Through the Real Estate Bubble?" by By Bill Wise and David Pasternack. August 8, 2005